Political: The Greek Balancing Act

In the last several months Europe has witnessed a shift in its political system, where the traditional parties have been ousted from government by growing nationalist and extremist parties amid internal and external pressures. The situation is best exemplified in Greece, where the recent elections brought about a new government whose decisions will ultimately decide Greece’s fate in the European Union. More importantly, the new government’s balancing of internal pressures from the unhappy populace and external pressures from the EU will set the trend for how economically struggling members of the EU will react if they face a similar situation.

In the internal front, pressure is arising from a growingly frustrated populace who is going to have to face even larger cuts to the amenities and services it has come to expect from the Greek welfare state. The recent riots against austerity programs as well as anger at the whole economic downpour places intense pressure on the Greek government to relieve some of the EU’s austerity programs that come with the bailout. Furthermore, the peoples distaste for the traditional pro-bailout parties, PAOK and New Democracy, has led to the growth of extremist anti-bailout parties such as the Syriza, which has the second largest number of seats in parliament. The situation almost reflects that of post World War 1 Germany, where dissatisfaction with the current political system in combination with economic downfall and international sanctions brought the rise of the radical Communist and Nazi parties. Although the moderate traditional parties continue to hold power, they will now have to contend with off-center ideologues whose power will continue to grow as the austerity programs, welfare cuts and economic burdens continue to increase public disapproval with the traditional parties.

Subsequently, the Greek pro bailout parties will have to negotiate with a stern EU community, who is willing to remove it from the organization if it will not comply with its austerity requirements and meet the set deadlines and goals for the bailout. Greek leaders have to negotiate with EU leaders who are increasingly feeling their own internal pressures to take action against Greece if no major shift is produced. The greatest tensions comes from Germany, Europe’s leading economic power, where a previously compliable Angela Merkel is in a difficult position as her political allies in the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) and liberal Free Democrats (FDP) are increasingly adverse to further Greek bailouts.  Thus she is left with decreasing support in the Bundestag and little maneuverability to negotiate with the Greek leaders. Moreover, Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras will travel in Europe in order to convince EU leaders of his determination to pass the 11.5 billion euros ($14.2 billion) austerity plan if he is given more time. The final decision on Greece’s future condition in the EU will likely come in September, when the "troika" of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund is expected to decide on the dissemination of more of the 130 billion Euro bailout funds. Meanwhile, the Greek government will have to make a strong effort to tackle the endemic tax evasion and to further decrease the number of public sector jobs amid protests at home in order to meet the EU’s goal.

The current political situation in Greece is sustainable only if the current Greek government receives more cooperation from either the EU or its citizens. In my opinion, the Greek government has to first try to ameliorate the tensions within the EU making sure foreign leaders understand that patience is needed to implement their austerity programs. Simultaneously, the Greek government must attempt to root out the corruption and tax evasion that is plaguing the Greek state, a problem that which resolved could bring in some much needed revenue for the government and increase confidence among the people. Lastly, the Greek government must make the populace understand that the austerity measures and cuts in comfortable public services are necessary if the people wish to remain in the EU. The complex situation in Greece requires a lot of balancing if Greece is to remain in the EU, yet if the Greek people as well as the EU community both allow the Greek government some room to maneuver, the situation can be salvaged. Yet the overarching questions remains- Would it not be better if Greece drops out of the EU?

Hyperlinks:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/13/us-germany-greece-idUSBRE87C09H20120813

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/15/us-greece-samaras-idUSBRE87E0FC20120815

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/07/us-eurozone-merkel-idUSBRE8760ON20120807

Environmental: The Central European Heat Wave

Over the past summer a new heat wave swept over what is becoming a progressively warmer Europe. In the second week of July, temperatures in Romania, Serbia and Croatia have consistently gone over 40 degrees Celsius, marking a prevalent increase in summer temperatures over the last several years. These conditions are presumably an example of the future warmer world in which we will live in as global warming seems to be making its imprint.

Along with the heat came a variety of adverse effects ranging from rising food prices to increased health concerns. For example, as the heat intensified the drought already plaguing Romania, Europe’s second largest agricultural exporter, corn and grain harvests have wilted away causing a sharp drop in the available supply and increasing their cost. Furthermore, farmers raising livestock now have to spend more money for fodder causing meat product prices to rise as well. The heat also caused a substantial increase in heat stroke and medical problems, with there being almost 6,700 medical calls to the ambulance service in Romania over a 24 hour period. [1] [3]

These cumulative damages might not be catastrophic at this point in time, yet as the world food consumption increases relying more and more on high yielding crops and global warming intensifies, the chances of heat waves having disastrous effects increases. The increase in such heat waves might become unsustainable in the future, yet at this point in time I believe their negative effects can be mitigated through careful planning and better heat resistant crops. For example, researchers at Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich) have conducted studies suggesting the prevalence of heat waves in the summer can be predicted from winter and spring rainfall [2]. Hence, by leaving crop fields more prone to heat damage limp when a summer is projected to be warmer, the negative effects on the harvest can be mitigated while at the same time allowing the soil to recover. An alternative is to use genetically modified crops to better withstand the elevated temperatures for summer that are predicted to be warm.

Hyperlinks:

1.       http://brussels.cta.int/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=4664:europe-heat-wave-sparks-surge-in-grain-prices

2.       http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/05/120527153720.htm

3.       http://www.euronews.com/2012/08/07/heatwave-hits-central-europe/

Economic: Greece and the EU Crisis

Economic

In the recent era of expanded globalization, the negative effects taking place some economies inevitably affect the whole world. This is most evident with the recent European economic crisis, where inability to control financial problems in states such as Greece is affecting the economies of its prosperous neighbors and even the United States. The economic stagnation in smaller debt ridden nations such as Portugal and Greece has continued to expand, now threatening some of the regional powers like Italy and Spain. Yet unlike in previous situations of economic peril where the United States has led the way, no one has stepped up politically to provide a sensible solution to the problem. As the risk of an EU economic catastrophe increases, the EU begins to focus on Greece whose, albeit small, economy will set the trend for the events proceeding in the European Union.

The root of the problem stems from the EU leaders inability to create a common solution to meet various states individual problems while satisfying the rest of the members. For example when Greece is bailed out to repair its economy it receives certain conditions from the EU community. Yet when Greece does meet the conditions set forth and requests even more bailout funds they come in conflict with their original lenders. Unlike America, where a single national government had a unified response to its economic crisis, Europe has a plethora of leaders each with different perspectives and internal political pressures, causing a consensus to be elusive if not impossible.

The EU leaders are confronted with a decision, withdraw Greece from the EU or keep it in. If they keep it in considerable funds will have to continue with no feasible solution in sight. On the other hand Greece is removed from the EU then the situation is highly uncertain as its currency will have to change and devalue itself. This situation leads to conflict whether contracts with Greece will be paid in the devalued Greek currency or in a value equivalent to the contract in Euro’s.

So far the situation remains unsustainable, as the Euro continues to fall compared to the dollar, and the Greek economy continue to suffer. In my opinion, the solution would be to pay back the bailout in the form of services rather than currency. By this I mean instead of paying back the Germans a set amount of money they received, the Greeks would pay back by offering expense free vacations to Greece. Thus a variety of companies, ranging from hotels in Greece to airlines in Germany would benefit all while paying the debt.

Hyperlink: http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/12402

Cultural/Political: The Growing Muslim Minority

Culture/Religion

Perhaps the most prevalent change in European culture over the past decade has been the growing Muslim population as hundreds of immigrants from Northern Africa have poured into Western Europe. Moreover, with the low fertility rates of ethnic European women and the high growth rate of the Muslim minorities, Muslims are a growing percentage of the European population. Hence Europe's Muslim population has more than doubled in the past 30 years and will have doubled again by 2015. If the current growth rate continues, Muslims are expected to be the majority of the population in Western Europe by 2050.

The introduction of this large Muslim populace in a Europe where nations have developed their own specific cultures for hundreds of years leads to great social friction. Additionally, these large Muslim communities have retained their own customs and languages rather than integrating into the mainstream nation, thus creating problems when attempting to get jobs in an already difficult economy.

Furthermore, Europe has responded to the situation by trying to limit Muslim immigration and by promoting secular policies such as banning all religious symbols when working for a public company. This is evident with the rise of right leaning nationalist parties, who represent the fears of the white majority about the growing Muslim community. Yet not enough is being done to promote the active economic and social integration of Muslims in European society.

My opinion of the issue is that the current disintegrated growth of the Muslim community will lead to perpetual conflict and social tension between the European and Muslim populations. The rise in the nationalist parties is just an early sign of the social unrest and tumult that will occur if the issue is not resolved. Hence, to make the issue more sustainable, the Muslim immigration must be limited until the proper integration techniques are developed. The current approach to integrate the Muslim community, secularization, not only hurts positive organized religion but also makes the Muslim feel as if they are being targeted. Thus, in my opinion the key to integrating immigrants to mainstream society is by promoting a common ideal of economic prosperity and mobility; a European version of the American dream.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/5994047/Muslim-Europe-the-demographic-time-bomb-transforming-our-continent.html

Politics: Romania

Politics

In recent times Europe has experienced great political changes as increasing uncertainty and economic stressors have caused the electorate to pursue changes with the national government. Perhaps this situation is nowhere more evident than in Romania, one of Europe’s poorest most corrupt countries.

On Thursday, July 12, Romanian Prime Minister Victor Ponta promised to address EU concerns regarding rule of law and will and vowed to abide by any Constitutional Court decision regarding the referendum on the impeachment of President Traian Basescu. After a meeting with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, Ponta was handed a list of commandments that require him to retract a decree abolishing the 50 percent turnout rule for referendums and to avoid using any further decree’s that by-pass Parliament and the Constitutional Court.

This all comes in context as the Romanian Prime Minister continues his campaign to oust President Basescu and his party out of power by using his party’s majority in Parliament. Yet, the political turbulence has led to economic uncertainty in the nation as Romania risks losing the 5 billion Euro loan from the IMF that underpins the economy. This is well expressed in the recent news about Romania’s currency, the Leu, has reached its lowest value compared to the US dollar since 1995.With the referendum approaching quickly in two weeks, the fate of Romania’s politics and economy hang in the balance.

Observing these events as a Romanian citizen living abroad, I see this issue as the cumulative effects of many years of corrupt politics and uncaring government officials. Although I do not believe Interim president Crin Antonescu or Prime Minister Victor Ponta are upright citizens, their coming to power reflects a good change from the several years where Basescu has controlled government. His behavior in office has set the tone for dishonest politicians and his governmental policies have bankrupted a country with strong economic potential when he took office. The continuous unhappiness with politicians and corruption among the electorate is unsustainable and will eventually be reflected in the elections and protests. The early riots this year in Romania as well as the current political uprising foreshadow the people’s malcontent with the political system, and will ultimately lead to change. Thus, the question at hand is, who will step up in Romania out of all this turmoil to lead the country and appease the electorate and, more importantly, how long will it take?

Hyperlinks:
http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/romania-politics.hqh/
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303919504577524253792972184.html
http://eastofcenter.tol.org/2012/07/to-victor-go-the-spoils/